DISQUS

Joshua Zader · 3 years ago

Manual Trackback: I think you make some good suggestions here, Will. In my post on Meditation and Cognitive Independence I suggest that one can achieve even greater levels of cognitive independence (and less tendency toward confirmation bias) by learning to meditate.

Chris · 3 years ago

Of course, you, like everyone else, have other biases that will affect your reasoning in the same way that partisan reasoning is affected. Still, every description I've seen of this work (including Westin's in this post) is an exaggeration. The research on motivated cognition has a long history, and it's consistently shown that we don't always arrive at the conclusion we want to, because sometimes evidence and argumentation overwhelm our ability to bias the reasoning process, and sometimes we're actually motivated to come to the true conclusion, rather than a prejudiced one.

BillKorner · 3 years ago

>>It’s just that less is at stake for libertarians; we >>don’t have any power to lose.

Libertarians DO have something to lose! Just because its not seats in Congress is irrelevant.

For example,

(1) Any evidence tending to show that bureaucratic government regulation is (in spite of regulatory capture) benefitting the public undermines the libertarian ideology.

(2) Any evidence tending to show that market participants are colluding, unconsciously paralleling, or otherwise undermining the supposed free market is detrimental to the same ideology

(3) Evidence that capital markets are not efficient (e.g. that stock prices don't reflect profitability) makes libertarian rhetoric less persuasive.

(4) Indeed, any and all evidence that the government is subject to capture in various ways by disporportionately endowed private interests and, therefore, would promote social welfare more if wealth were not so disproportionately in the hands of said interests contributes to the refutation of libertarian ideology.

What on Earth do you mean that libertarians are not committed partisans? Of course they are.

Oh, you're talking about the Democrats and the Republicans. Those parties... Oh right.

Will Wilkinson · 3 years ago

I suppose there was a reason I said, "Not that libertarians aren’t guilty of confirmation bias—everyone is." The reason was I meant it. Which is why, maybe, I was telling my largely libertarian audience to lighten up and read a book they disagree with.

And, naturally, the next time a libertarian sends an eighteen year old to death in an unjust war, approves a multi-billion dollar govenrment contract, or signs into law a trillion dollar entitlement program, you'll be sure to let me know.

Kyle · 3 years ago

Tom Gilovich suggests that these sorts of biases are crucial to our not putting a shotgun in our mouth.

And I am inclined to agree.

I think even discussing confirmation bias is dangerous. So shhhhhh.

Of course - these effects may be very specific to personality types. That's what Barry Schwartz says anyhow.

I'll say this - nothing like a week with adoring undergrads to crank up the wholly undeserved confidence in one's own biases.

Great seeing you, BTW.

BillKorner · 3 years ago

As someone who deals in ideas for a living, Will, I'm sure you really do believe that libertarian ideas are at least as influential as men in positions of power.

I don't doubt your sincerity in admitting that libertairnas suffer confirmation bias too. My point goes to your suggestion that libertarians (since they are not a party in power) don't have as much REASON FOR, CAUSE FOR bias as power seeking Republicans and Democrats do.

My point did NOT go to your admission that libertarians (like everyone) are guilty of confirmation bias to the (lesser) extent that they have reason to fear it.

James · 3 years ago

I had always suspected that discussing the merits of libertarianism with my Democrat and Republican friends was a waste of time because they were so caught up in a primitive us-versus-them point of view. Schermer's recent work certainly seems to confirm this.

T. · 3 years ago

I agree with Chris, although confirmation bias exists and is in everyone, I believe its effects are exaggerated. I was a staunch liberal, but I read a conservative book that was so well-argued that I couldn't in good conscience keep believing what I was believing at that time. I double-checked the research and realized my old views were wrong. If people were ruled by confirmation bias juries wouldn't be swayed, people wouldn't change ideologies, etc.

quitacet · 3 years ago

hi will,

given that cognitive bias operates on a subcognitive/unconscious emotional level it seems a bit of a tall order to try and consciously 'price in' the distortion, though I do try to do so myself. it seems necessary but inadequate.

it also seems much worse for libertarians to consider their own values, convictions, and ideas equally subject to cognitive bias and other bounded-rational heuristics given the emphasis on pragmatic reason and objectivity in the literature. it questions the very core of the libertarian worldview (if there is one).

Chris wrote that we might be motivated to seek the true conclusions rather than those that appeal to our priors, but where the normative and subjective are concerned I wonder whether there are such conclusions.

quinn

Kyle · 3 years ago

Will,

I actually started reading your site in an attempt to expose myself to views that wouldn't just confirm my moderate-liberal opinions. I've felt myself drifting more toward libertarianism through you and the IHS seminar that I attended in Philadelphia, among others.

It infuriates me when people seem so comfortably smug in their ideology that I've wanted to avoid falling for the same routine. Unfortunately, it seems like a bit of a free-rider problem; dogmatic reactionists have no incentive to change their ways as long as they're supported by like-minded individuals.