Will Wilkinson - Latest Comments in Social Security: The Big Lie

Re: Social Security: The Big Lie

Micha Ghertner — Tue, 08 Feb 2005 07:09:46 -0000

Since an American citizen living abroad can still collect Social Security upon retirement, I see no reason why the same wouldn't be true for someone living on the moon. Next excuse, monkeyboy?

Re: Social Security: The Big Lie

Paul Zrimsek — Tue, 08 Feb 2005 04:32:28 -0000

Now that we're all agreed that a big benefit cut in year Y is no big deal provided real benefits are higher than they were in year Y-37, I propose that we immediately cut payments to retirees to 1% above their 1968 level. We could use the money to help save Medicare.

Re: Social Security: The Big Lie

monkyboy — Mon, 07 Feb 2005 18:25:33 -0000

As I assume you and your merry band of anachro-whatevers will be on the first flight to the moon when they begin, I have to say, not much Micha :)

Re: Social Security: The Big Lie

Micha Ghertner — Mon, 07 Feb 2005 15:50:31 -0000

Hey monkey boy, howsa bout we make a deal and I sell you all future claims I might have to my Social Security benefits, since you seem to be so certain that they are coming. How much would you offer me for them?

Re: Social Security: The Big Lie

monkyboy — Mon, 07 Feb 2005 08:08:52 -0000

Yes, Micha, benefits will have to be cut in 2042, or 2052, depending on whose numbers you believe.

But the way SS benefits are currently indexed, even your cut benefits will be higher, in constant dollars, than what current SS recipients get now.

Keep hanging your stockings by the fireplace at Christmas :)

Re: Social Security: The Big Lie

Micha Ghertner — Mon, 07 Feb 2005 07:49:03 -0000

"People my age are as likely to believe in Social Security as they are in Santa Claus. And, if you ask me, it would be equally naive for a twenty-something to believe in either one.

...I will be 62 in 2042, the exact year the Social Security Administration forecasts that the system's trust fund will run out of money, and benefits will be cut to match cash flow from tax payments, unless a fix is made earlier."

- Washington Post

Re: Social Security: The Big Lie

monkyboy — Sun, 06 Feb 2005 17:37:06 -0000

Glen, even if nothing is done to Social Security, today's children will receive larger monthy payment, in today's dollars, than those workers who are retiring in the next few years...

Why fix it if it ain't broke?

Re: Social Security: The Big Lie

Will Wilkinson — Sun, 06 Feb 2005 15:52:33 -0000

Yawn....

Re: Social Security: The Big Lie

Gareth — Sun, 06 Feb 2005 14:59:39 -0000

A promise is a lie if it isn't fulfilled. It isn't a lie if it is.

The irony here is that the people who propose not fulfilling the promise justify it by saying that the promise was always a lie.

Re: Social Security: The Big Lie

Timothy — Sun, 06 Feb 2005 12:45:08 -0000

Glen- Surely you can admit that the President specifically said that those over 55 will not have their benefits cut. Even the President apparently is not proposing that younger people stop paying for the retirement of the disportionately large Baby Boom generation.

Re: Social Security: The Big Lie

Glen — Sun, 06 Feb 2005 12:36:46 -0000

Those actually sound like some darn good recommendations for communicating with regular people. And notice that they don't advocate lying -- on the contrary, they advocate acknowledging risks.

And Monkyboy, we all know you disagree with Will's position on Social Security (and a lot of other stuff). But surely you can admit that if anyone will get screwed by reforming Social Security, it's probably not the children -- they're the ones getting screwed *right now*, because they're paying (or will be paying) large amounts of taxes to pay for the retirement of the disproportionately large Baby Boom generation. So if you're going to bag on SS reform, at least get your winners and losers straight.

Re: Social Security: The Big Lie

Peter — Sat, 05 Feb 2005 16:26:59 -0000

Sorry, I can't seem go get to it. Zero points.

Re: Social Security: The Big Lie

monkyboy — Sat, 05 Feb 2005 16:25:24 -0000

Speaking of deceptive rhetoric, here are the talking points from a playbook handed out at a recent Republican gathering to plan their Social Security phaseout strategy:

Key Recommendations:

"Personalization" not "privatization": Personalization suggests increased personal
ownership and control. Privatization connotes the total corporate takeover of Social Security; this is inaccurate and thoroughly turns off listeners, who are very concerned about corporate wrongdoing.

Talk in simple language: Your audience doesn’t understand financial jargon. Phrases such
as "cash flow deficits" and "actuarial imbalance" don’t normally crop up in conversation;
avoid using them.

Keep the numbers small: Your audience doesn’t know how trillions and billions differ.
They know these numbers are large, but not how large nor how many billions make a trillion.
Boil numbers down to "your family’s share." Also avoid percentages; your audience will try
to calculate them in their head, no easy task while listening to a speech, and many will do
it incorrectly.

Acknowledge risks: Many of your listeners will not have a lot of financial education or
investment experience, but they know that markets have risk and nothing is guaranteed.
They believe investments can grow over time, but they also know they can lose their
investments. They don’t trust someone who tells them differently.

Say it the way they can hear it: Your audience will reject some turns of phrase because of
the connotations and associations. The responses are not universal, but they are much less
personal than you might imagine.

In other words, tell the morons, in simple language, why it's in their interest to screw their children...

Re: Social Security: The Big Lie

loyopp — Sat, 05 Feb 2005 14:57:39 -0000

Will, I think you've hit the nail on the head. I propose reforming SS to actually be a social insurance program here.
I'd be interested to hear your reaction.

Re: Social Security: The Big Lie

Micha Ghertner — Sat, 05 Feb 2005 14:44:07 -0000

The drug war seems to have a life of its own. The successful framing of Social Security, on the other hand, can be directly attributed to a few extremely skillful politicians and bureaucrats.

Re: Social Security: The Big Lie

titus — Sat, 05 Feb 2005 13:32:29 -0000

"Romer's paper suggests that Social Security may be the best example of purposefully deceptive framing for political gain in the history of the United States."

I don't know - I think I'd still have to go with the Drug War for that prize.