Will Wilkinson - Latest Comments in Why Americans Breed

Re: Why Americans Breed

Vancouver, Canada — Sat, 26 Jul 2008 10:21:41 -0000

Hi. A little late here but I have a question...
Why is it assumed that Americans are more optimistic by the Harris Poll (Nearly two-thirds (65%) of adults in the United States say they expect their lives will improve in the next five years)

Maybe the other countries are already happy/content and don't think it can get any better - whereas the American respondents are not currently happy and need to hope for a better future.

I am a happy Canadian and would answer the Harris poll as 'not expecting the future to improve' because I can't see how my life could improve.

A lot of the explanations for why Americans have a higher birth rate also apply to Canada (more 'dirt', lots of immigration, descendants of immigrants) but Canadians have a low birth rate. Exploring the differences between these two similar countries may help answer why Americans are so fertile.

Re: Why Americans Breed

great_ape — Tue, 01 May 2007 19:14:58 -0000

Is there readily available data concerning the gender distribution among new births across these countries? There have been some reports in the scientific literature suggesting that women who are feeling more optimistic are more likely to give birth to boys. (Boys require more resources both during pregnancy and after birth.) If I recall correctly, the effect was not dramatic, but it was statistically significant. A trend towards more boys in countries with higher birth rates would lend support to the the optimism hypothesis.

Re: Why Americans Breed

Jose — Tue, 01 May 2007 10:26:36 -0000

I wouldn't conflate "optimism" with "happiness". The Danes for instance are a very pessimistic but very happy bunch. I'm extremely skeptical of any reasoning that boils down human nature in such simplistic terms.

There may be social trends at work that aren't happening simultaneously on either side of the Atlantic. For instance the explosion in pre marital sex we've seen in the west didn't start everywhere at once. The same could be true for birth rates. Whatever factors that are at work in Europe might start revealing their hand in the USA in a decade or two (if ever).

Re: Why Americans Breed

Jason — Mon, 30 Apr 2007 18:36:37 -0000

There is a number of reasons why people have children, as listed above by others. These reasons are more or less important, depending on the living conditions where one lives. In the third world, children are important for their cheap labor and support in old age. If you live in the first world, and the basics of life (food, shelter, and clothing) are easily obtained, you have children to give your life meaning and purpose, since you have found that money, sex, and possesions will not.

There is no one reason why the birth rates are higher here than in Europe, it is a combination of factors that make child rearing more favorable and attractive. However, once you have attained what you want in life on a material level, which is easy to do in America, most find that they are still not content with life and will try to increase there relationships with other humans. Children also give one a feeling that their time on this mortal coil was not a complete waste of time and that they are leaving behind a legacy that will live on after their death.

Re: Why Americans Breed

Kurt9 — Mon, 30 Apr 2007 13:25:30 -0000

I disagree with most of you here. I think American exceptionalism is due exclusively to affordable housing. I think explanations like "religion", "tradition", "reverence for kids" etc, etc, etc, are nothing but horse puckey. These are the kinds of words used by bad writers and poets.

Seattle is often cited these days as a "blue-state" place with a low birth rate, compared to Salt Lake City being a "red-state" place with a higher birth rate. Guess what guys? 25 years ago Seattle used to be a "family" town with a Salt Lake City like birth rate. Today, it is not. Why? Because housing is way more expensive compared to income than it was 25 years ago. 25 years ago, Seattle housing was comparable to Salt Lake City. Today, its like California.

I can cite example after example. California's Central valley (often called the Sam Juaquin Valley) has become expansive as well. What cost $200K now goes for $400K. The trend is not limited to major cities. Even Bend, Oregon (population 50K) has a median house price of $350K.

Of course, much of this is based on a speculative bubble and does not reflect the "fundamental" value of real estate. But does anyone here really expect real estate values to return to 1995-2000 price levels (If you do, I've got a hot deal on a bridge for you)?

The muslims in Europe do not have their "third world" birth rates. They have birth rates slightly higher than current U.S., but are falling almost as fast as the white European levels. Indeed, even much of the third world no longer has "third world" like birth rates. Both Turkey and Iran are below replacement and Egypt is falling fast. India's at 2.85 kids per woman (the muslim rate is around 3) and is falling fast. Only sub-Saharan Africa has really high birth-rates and even these are starting to decline in some countries.

Back to the U.S. If housing prices continue their long term trend of rising faster than income, you can donuts to dollars that the U.S. will have European (and East Asian) birth rates within the next 20 years (I think within 10 years).

Re: Why Americans Breed

Lehosh — Mon, 30 Apr 2007 12:52:51 -0000

The "affordable housing" and "dirt gap" theories don't necessarily hold water either. If, as Ed said, this was the "obvious answer", then African and Arab minorities in Europe would not still have their 3rd world fertility rates and no one would be talking about immigrants "breeding out" native Europeans. Arab women in Europe have a higher fertility than almost any white community in the US (besides Mormons in Utah), and the French banlieu is not nearly as spacious or as cheap as a cottage in Kansas.

One factor people are overlooking I think is the acceptability of motherhood in the United States. Motherhood as a calling has withstood the onslaught of "modernism" in America in a way that it did not in Western Europe. America has a nostalgia for its roots and I think we underestimate how many people, young women especially, still hope for and work toward the nuclear family ideal.

Re: Why Americans Breed

TBAY — Mon, 30 Apr 2007 08:49:09 -0000

How about this for a guess. Americans expect less from their government, in doing so they rely more upon their own abilities. If success is acheived, this produces an overall more optimistic environment. In other words, self-suffiency in a positive sense is self reinforcing, whether it results in better economic conditions or a belief that you are the best person to raise your own children.

Europeans expect their government to do much more for them but reliance breeds at best a luke warm appreciation. When it comes down to the biological desire to make sure your children are provided for, they don't trust the government nor do they particularly desire to be indebted to the government for raising their children. They just take a pass on the whole venture hoping someone else will produce the next generation. Maybe the government should figure out a way to do that for them too.

Re: Why Americans Breed

Macbrvs94 — Sun, 29 Apr 2007 21:17:39 -0000

I read somewhere that Euro's don't have children because it's a colossal pain in the ass to cart the kiddies around through the public transportation system. Apparently everybody lives in cities and nobody owns a car, so the only way to travel from home to the daycare to work and back again is to take a train, double-decker bus, subway, etc... That would be a bitch with a stroller, car seat, diapers and all your work stuff too.

We've got it pretty lucky over here. Most breeders live in the 'burbs and own a car and can zip around however we damn well please. I always thought this explanation was a little more common sensical than all that religion/happy people stuff.

Re: Why Americans Breed

Greg — Sun, 29 Apr 2007 17:28:14 -0000

Population density and affordable housing don't make for a robust explanation, either. I won't even bother to point out countries where birth rates are high and living space is a problem, because there are too many obvious examples.

The tightly packed population and increasing poverty of Europe may be factors, but the full story is obviously more complicated than that.

Re: Why Americans Breed

Steve Sailer — Sun, 29 Apr 2007 15:46:52 -0000

The Dirt Gap is the biggest explanatory variable: America has a lot more dirt to build houses on that does Western Europe. Bigger supply means lower prices. Lower housing prices mean couples can afford to get married and have children.

You see the exact same process in the U.S. in the last two Presidential elections: Bush carried 25 of the 26 states with the highest white total fertility rate (babies per woman), while Kerry won the bottom 16. Same with measures of years married among younger white adults. Similar for housing costs and housing inflation.

A quick look at a map shows that the Blue States are located along oceans and Great Lakes, so suburban housing expansion can't proceed in 360 degrees the way it can in inland Red States. That's the bottom line.

You can read all about how Affordable Family Formation drives American voting here:

http://blog.vdare.com/archi...

Re: Why Americans Breed

ed — Sun, 29 Apr 2007 14:14:11 -0000

The answer is painfully obvious and not related to magical variables like "American exceptionalism". The US as a whole is far less developed than Europe: land is cheaper and a much larger proportion of people are poorer. In comparably developed areas of the US (dense urban areas in the North East for example) the cost of child bearing is much higher and fertility rates are comparable to Europe. Less developed regions have lower property values, higher religiosity and more poor individuals. The US is just "behind" Europe on this. The United States is so incredibly huge that we have a long way to go to look like crowded old Europe.

Re: Why Americans Breed

Al Fin — Sun, 29 Apr 2007 13:34:03 -0000

I'll go with the "optimism" explanation, plus americans do take their religious duty to "be fruitful and multiply" more seriously than their Euro-cousins.

Here's how you really boost birthrates--make childhood vaccinations illegal and do away with antibiotics, neonatal intensive care units, children's hospitals, and all the other advancements that make childhood deaths unusual in the developed world.

I'm kinda worried about the Islamist explosion--with very high birthrates in the poorest muslim countries. Somebody's got to make more warm bodies to stand against the sharia nonsense.

Re: Why Americans Breed

Patel — Sun, 29 Apr 2007 11:50:03 -0000

I have to disagree with Jeremy R. above. I think higher income does not necessarily mean less kids, I think sometimes it can actually encourage more children. I live in an affluent area with many large families, I'm talking even 5 - 8 kids. We are about average with three.

I think the biggest factor in large families is having one spouse stay home. And in our area we do have more than a few stay-at-home dads. Most of the smaller families I know (1-2 kids), both parents work.

Re: Why Americans Breed

SPC — Sun, 29 Apr 2007 10:20:47 -0000

Access to single-family housing is not the only factor. If it were, how would you explain the significantly higher birthrate of Israeli jews compared to American jews?

Re: Why Americans Breed

Elizabeth — Sun, 29 Apr 2007 09:37:27 -0000

I would be interested in seeing a birth-rate comparison between middle-class American and German, Japanese, Italian, etc. families. I tend to think that among the "underclass," the poor in the non-reproducing countries are more likely to use birth control more dilligently than in the U.S.

But among middle-class families, there's a cultural and an economic difference. In the U.S., it's pretty much a given that a "middle-class" familiy will have a single-family house; in Germany, single-family homes are rare, and apartments give you much less living space for children. And once smaller families have become the norm, and a three-child family is considered to be a "large family," it doesn't even occur to most couples to imagine they would want more than one or two.

Re: Why Americans Breed

Phil — Sun, 29 Apr 2007 06:29:03 -0000

Note "How often you attend church services?" is NOT a good indicator of regard for religion.

In my example, I am signifcantly more religous than I was 10 years ago, but due to time and other constraints, I go to church less often.

Measuring attitudes regarding religion must be tricky business. I remember all the Christians that came out of the closet after the fall of the Berlin Wall... and that was a society that had blatantly squashed religion for the past 70 years or so. You know they weren't going to service often.

Re: Why Americans Breed

Bruce G Charlton — Sun, 29 Apr 2007 02:12:49 -0000

I should add to my above comment that we need to distinguish between societies in terms of fetility control technologies - contraception and abortion.

In societies lacking these (or where they are inaccessible, or taboo), higher status leads to more sex leads to more reproduction; but when the link between sex and reproduction was broken by technology we moved into a new era with new problems.

For example, in the UK women in the 'underclass' have a lot more children on average than educated and successful women. Presumably this is substantially due to less effective use of contraceptive technologies among the poorest, rather than greater optimism among the poorest.

So the optimism equals fertility link may (if correct) apply only to the sector of the female population which effectively controls its own fertility, and which decides if and when to reproduce.

Re: Why Americans Breed

Bruce G Charlton — Sun, 29 Apr 2007 01:58:35 -0000

Very thought-provoking posting and comments.

And this is a very important issue.

What comes through is that we don't know the answer, but we need to know. I would guess that international comparisons can't give us the answer - because of the problem of controlling too many variables. The US is indeed exceptional, and in too many ways to control for.

For long term viability the birthrate of the most successful people in the most modernized societies does indeed need to increase. And I think it will, by technological advances (including new forms of childcare) hich reduces the costs (especially time costs, which are the main cause of economic costs) of reproduction.

But probably there also needs to develop an awareness of the reproductive imperative, and then a social ethic which specifically values and awards high status to large and nurturing families.

And this links back to optimism - because only people who value their modernizing way of life and wish it to continue will be likely to embrace such an ethic.

But the kick start for change will, I think, have to be technological - human reproduction will need to be more 'efficient' is high status women are going to start having kids (more than a third of women college graduates do not reproduce, and the proportion is rising), and then start having more kids. .

Re: Why Americans Breed

Donna B. — Sun, 29 Apr 2007 01:48:36 -0000

I got a problem with the optimism/pessimism thing as a predictor for birth rates. Why doesn't it make just as much sense for pessimism to be a predictor for high birth rates instead of optimism?

"Old-age pensions" leading to higher birth rates is one example of a pessimistic predictor.

Then again, maybe Americans breed "more" or "better" simply because we're sexier ;-)

Re: Why Americans Breed

Kurt9 — Sat, 28 Apr 2007 23:07:43 -0000

There is a far simpler explanation for why white Americans have more kids than white Europeans: afordable family formation, more commonly known as cost of housing.

Until this recent bubble, housing in the U.S. has tended to be substantially cheaper than that of Europe, with the exception of places like Coastal California, New York City, and what not.

The places where housing is as expensive as Europe? They have the same low birthrates as Europe. Touchy-feely explanations like religion and optimism for the future are just so much horse puckey.

If the cost of housing in the rest of the U.S. rises up to the levels that it is in the so-called "blue" states, expect the U.S. birth rate to decline to the same level as that of Europe and Japan. The American "exceptionalism" will disappear.

Re: Why Americans Breed

Assistant Village Idiot — Sat, 28 Apr 2007 23:04:51 -0000

Neglected factor: One wouldn't think it could still be a factor this far along, but there is enormous correlation in birthrates according to whether the nation was an oppressor, victim, neutral, or rescuer nation in WWII and the Cold War. Germany, Italy, Japan, and Russia have extremely low birthrates. This could easily relate to the optimism factor cited above.

Re: Why Americans Breed

JeremyR — Sat, 28 Apr 2007 21:58:59 -0000

I would actually guess that it's because the US has more lower income whites than other countries. And lower income people tend to have more children than wealthier people.

Whereas in Europe, the bulk of the poor is mostly immigrants, and they are the ones having children.

I mean, part of the way a family accumulates wealth is via inheritance. Family home and what not. In Europe, white families go back 100s of years. In the US, maybe 1-2 generations at least, maybe 200 years at most (except in parts of the east). Longer in rural areas, but they also tend to have lower property values.

Re: Why Americans Breed

comatus — Sat, 28 Apr 2007 21:13:35 -0000

"But that doesn't mean Americans are more violent than other people. We're just better shots."

Maybe we're not so religiously optimistic. Maybe our birth control isn't working.

Re: Why Americans Breed

Richard Aubrey — Sat, 28 Apr 2007 21:12:16 -0000

Read not long ago--cannot recall--that liberal parents have something like 1.5 kids on average, conservative parents 2.2, and conservative Christian parents 3.
The essay also said that about 80% of the kids follow their parents' world view, i.e. about 80% of the liberals' kids will be liberal.
Applying this to the conservative Christians, that means that about .6 kids will become not conservative Christians. They'll either become conservative but not particularly Christian, or liberal, or something else.
As Mark Steyn says, the future belongs to those who show up for it.

Re: Why Americans Breed

michael castrillo — Sat, 28 Apr 2007 20:44:42 -0000

Here's my own theory:

The US population as it grows wealthier buys privacy, or more to the point, isolation. Increasingly, one's immediate family are the only companions one has. Hence the need for more of them.